Seed Investing & Dark Dealflow: You Lose 100% Of The Deals You Don’t See
Folks outside of seed stage venture often think “winning” deals is the most important part of being a great investor, but I’d argue it’s “seeing” the best opportunities that’s actually the strongest indicator of future fund success. Or to put another way,
I rather see 100% of the top seed opportunities and win 50% than see 50% and win 100%
What outsiders don’t realize is that much of the most intriguing seed startups go through a financing process that’s “dark” — not seen by most investors because it’s either competitively privileged to a few firms or so against traditional patterns that the walk is more random.
Satya and I track “misses” (NYC and SF/BayArea startups in our areas of interest) as rigorously as the other phases of a traditional “See -> Pick -> Win” funnel.
Four years into Homebrew, we’re fortunate to feel really good about our relationships and reputations — you live and die by those in our business.
